More US Strikes Are Unlikely to Break Standoff: Intelligence

US intelligence officials don't expect the latest barrage of American airstrikes on Iran to change Tehran's stance much, according to a new assessment described to the Washington Post. Analysts say the two countries are locked in a kind of enduring gray zone—neither at full-scale war nor at peace—even as their exchanges grow more lethal and politically risky for President Trump at home. The CIA-led report, which administration officials were briefed on, concludes Iran's leadership remains resilient despite heavy military losses and could weather serious pressure, including a naval blockade, for months.

Trump has ordered at least 10 straight nights of strikes after two US troops were killed in an Iranian attack on a base in Jordan, while Iran has launched its own attempts at retaliation and its allies, including Yemen's Houthi militia, are threatening important shipping lanes. Both sides say they're open to renewed talks, per the Post, but US officials describe a split between Iranian officials who favor diplomacy and hardliners in the Revolutionary Guard. Former intelligence officer Jonathan Panikoff warned that the Trump administration's apparent bet—that more bombing will yield Iranian concessions—is "almost certainly incorrect."

• No one expects a war to last long when they start it, a New York Times analysis, which can be found here, points out.