Florida Is Set for an Interesting Primary Day

A Republican attempting to become Florida's first Black governor faces a crowded field Tuesday while Democrats wage primary battles for a reduced pool of left-leaning seats under redrawn congressional maps. US Rep. Byron Donalds is banking on President Trump's endorsement in hopes of securing the Republican nomination and advancing to the fall election. His opponents include Lt. Gov. Jay Collins and political newcomer James Fishback. Democrats' leading candidate for governor is David Jolly, a former Republican congressman who switched parties last year. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is barred from running for a third consecutive term, notes the AP.

The primaries are giving final shape to a November ballot whose races will test Trump's grip on his adopted state and Democrats' ability to resurrect Florida as a national political battleground. Florida has moved notably to the right since Trump won his first election in 2016, though Democrats hope to regain ground from his slumping popularity ratings. A look:

• Governor: There have been three elected Black governors in US history. Yet the 47-year-old Donalds is more likely to tout his conservative credentials than the possibility of joining that select group. He promises to push for tax cuts, overhaul Florida's insurance regulations to lower consumer costs, and seek greater price transparency from health care providers. Trump has had an inconsistent record on picks for governor this year, and a strong showing by Donalds would leave him, and Republicans in general, in a more commanding position for November.
• Senate: Two Democrats are battling for nomination in a special election to complete Marco Rubio's term. Progressive state lawmaker Angie Nixon matches up against retired Army Lt. Col. Alex Vindman, a former National Security Council official who testified in Trump's first impeachment case in 2019. Meanwhile, Sen. Ashley Moody, the DeSantis appointee currently holding the seat, appears in a strong position as she seeks the Republican nomination with Trump's endorsement.

• 20th District: For Congress, Tuesday's biggest nominating fight involves longtime Democratic US Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, former US Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick and others in a redrawn south Florida district. Wasserman Schultz, who is white, wants voters in the new, plurality Black district to grant her a 12th term. Cherfilus-McCormick is seeking a comeback after resigning earlier this year under a pending federal indictment and threat of House ethics sanctions. Much more here.
• 7th District: DeSantis and other Republicans have bailed on Republican Rep. Cory Mills as he seeks a third term in Florida's 7th Congressional District at the same time he's denying domestic violence allegations. He faces three primary opponents. "I have not endorsed Cory Mills, and I do not support Cory Mills," DeSantis said recently.
• Turnout: Registered Republicans now outnumber Democrats in Florida, a relatively recent flip. That puts the burden on Republicans to outperform Democrats comfortably in overall turnout. If it's close—with Democrats coaxing a clearly larger percentage of their voters to the polls—then the party should be more optimistic heading into November. If Republicans buck national trends and dominate, then Democrats could be facing another rough fall campaign.