Worries About Putin May Be Behind CIA Chief's Visit

CIA Director John Ratcliffe's unusual visit to Moscow this week has set off all kinds of speculation about why he went and what message he might have delivered to his Russian counterpart. (He didn't meet with Vladimir Putin.) Some of the narratives:

• Push to end war: Current and former officials tell the New York Times that Ratcliffe privately warned FSB chief Aleksandr Bortnikov that Russia's war in Ukraine is grinding into a losing proposition—militarily and economically—and urged the Kremlin to seek a negotiated end before conditions further deteriorate. He reportedly did not threaten specific US reprisals if Putin presses on, but framed the situation as unsustainable.

• 'Dangerous' Russia: But why the in-person visit? In the Atlantic, Thomas Wright, a former Biden national security official, writes that it likely reflects a belief within the Trump administration that "Russia is getting more dangerous." Wright floats the possibility that Putin is planning an attack on a NATO country and betting that the US would not respond aggressively. Putin may see such an attack as a chance to essentially break the NATO alliance. Trump, after all, "has repeatedly expressed disdain for Europe," and the US military arsenal is reportedly depleted because of the Iran war, he writes.
• Kremlin strategy: A story in the Washington Post amplifies the latter point, asserting that US intelligence suggests the Kremlin views the US as weakened by the Iran conflict, making this an opportune time to strike a European ally. But Ratcliffe warned Moscow that escalating the Ukraine war would backfire, according to the story.