AfD Wins State Election, Lacks Governing Majority: Exit Polls

AfD is on track for the biggest election victory for a far-right party in modern Germany, but what it can do with it is an open question. Exit polls in Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday put Alternative for Germany at about 44%—nearly double its 2021 showing and far ahead of Chancellor Friedrich Merz's Christian Democrats, who sank to around 18%. The result of the parliamentary election positions AfD to potentially lead a state government for the first time since World War II, the Guardian reports, but the party insists it will only govern alone and appears to be falling short of having enough seats to hold an outright majority. That stance differs from the united front among Germany's mainstream parties, which maintain a firewall against cooperating with AfD, which is labeled "rightwing extremist" by German domestic intelligence.

Turnout was a record 76.5% in the east-central state. AfD leaders called the outcome a "clear government mandate" and vowed to press hardline policies on migration, deportations, wind power, and support for Ukraine. The upset is another blow to Merz, whose CDU has also slipped behind AfD in national polling. That has prompted fresh warnings from church leaders, economists, and security experts about what an AfD-led state could mean for German democracy, the economy, and relations with Russia. The election was considered a test of whether voters think AfD is capable of governing, per Politico Europe. "The winner of the election, the AfD, is now the strongest force in the state parliament of Saxony-Anhalt," said Sven Schulze, the state's current prime minister, "and we in the CDU will have to deal with this result."