Unemployment for Non-College Grads Is at Near-Record Low

For young Americans who stopped school after high school, the job hunt hasn't looked this good in years. A Burning Glass Institute analysis finds that unemployment for 22- to 34-year-olds without degrees is near the lowest levels seen since 2003, just as conditions for similarly aged college grads are among the weakest outside the Great Recession and the pandemic, reports the Wall Street Journal. The split reflects basic supply and demand, with too few people in trades and hands-on service work as older workers retire and immigration wanes, and more degree-holders than ever as AI chips away at entry-level white-collar tasks (though some experts say there's more nuance to how artificial intelligence plays into the job market).

"There's a rapidly growing supply of people with a bachelor's degree, and you have a rapid decline of people who don't," says BGI chief economist Gad Levanon. "I don't think it's a temporary thing." Fortune notes that it's all "a sign that the higher education payoff is dead," though the Journal notes that, on paper, a diploma still helps—overall unemployment for prime-age college grads is lower than for those with only high school. Relative to their own history, however, blue-collar and in-person workers now have the edge. "Students like me who have done everything they're supposed to do, we're still facing challenges," one recent college grad who earned just three interviews after sending out 70 applications, and who has since decided to go to business school for an MBA, laments to the Journal.