Democrats' Odds of Taking the Senate Keep Improving

A Senate map that once looked locked down for Republicans is starting to wobble, Nate Cohn writes in a political analysis for the New York Times. To take control, Democrats must hold all 13 of their own seats and capture four now in GOP hands—a tall order that would likely require wins in at least two states President Trump carried by double digits in 2024. Yet polling now shows Democrats tied or ahead in four Republican-held seats—Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Alaska—with early signs of vulnerability for the GOP in Iowa and Texas as well.

Cohn points to three main dynamics: Trump's sagging approval ratings amid inflation and war in the Middle East; unusually strong Democratic recruits in Trump-friendly territory, including former Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio and former Rep. Mary Peltola in Alaska; and a possible recalibration of how red some states really are. In North Carolina, former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is posting solid leads. In Maine, first-time Democrat Graham Platner is surprisingly competitive against Sen. Susan Collins despite controversies in his past.

Betting markets have started calling the Senate a toss-up, with Kalshi, for example, even giving Democrats an edge of 51-49. At the Cook Political Report, Jessica Taylor writes that "the Senate battlefield is shifting in Democrats' favor," but her analysis sees the GOP as the "narrowing favorite" to retain the chamber at the moment. Taylor doesn't rule out the possibility that could change over the next few months.