Trump's New Mideast Strategy Appears to Be a Longshot

President Trump has made a new pivot in Iran peace talks: He's now pitching a sweeping reset of Middle East relations that would widen a regional pact from his first term called the Abraham Accords. Trump wants more Muslim-majority countries to formally recognize or deepen ties with Israel, and he specifically called out Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, and Jordan as targets for inclusion. He added that Iran itself could join once it signs a peace deal, asserting that the widened pact would be "the most important Deal" those countries would ever sign. Bahrain, Kazakhstan, Morocco, Sudan, and the United Arab Emirates are the current signees, notes the Washington Post.

A Wall Street Journal analysis points out that the idea could give Trump an out with hawkish Republicans who have blasted the emerging Iran framework as too soft and too similar to the Obama-era nuclear deal Trump scrapped in his first term. Sens. Ted Cruz and Lindsey Graham, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and ex–national security adviser John Bolton all have warned the proposal could bolster Tehran. Graham, however, quickly pivoted to cheer Trump's Abraham Accords expansion plan as "simply brilliant" and potentially transformative for the region. A New York Times analysis similarly notes that if "more countries sign up to the accords, it could placate some Iran hawks who have criticized Mr. Trump for pursuing a peace deal."

The major obstacle: the countries Trump is pressuring. Saudi Arabia has repeatedly said it won't normalize relations with Israel without a credible path to Palestinian statehood—something even more remote after Israel's devastating campaign in Gaza and clashes with Iran. Pakistan's defense minister already has rejected the idea of joining, notes the Times of India. Qatari officials likewise signaled they're not on board and would only engage Israel on resolving the Palestinian issue. Trump's vision is "a hope tethered to a galaxy far, far away," Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator now at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, tells the Journal. Gulf leaders risk public backlash if they move closer to Israel under current conditions, he says.