Republicans Are Split Over Johnson's Social Security Plans

House Speaker Mike Johnson wants Republicans to wade into Social Security's finances, and his own party is split on whether that's gutsy or politically reckless. After new projections showed the program will be unable to pay full benefits as soon as 2032—triggering a roughly 22% cut—Johnson said Congress must move next year to rein in costs for Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.

• "The largest spending items, the reason we're in trouble is because over 74% of federal spending is on autopilot—mandatory spending, that is your entitlement programs like Medicare, Medicaid, and things like Social Security—they have to be adjusted and fixed," Johnson told the Moon Griffon Show last week, per Newsweek. "We have a plan to do that next year, and it's critical, because we're at $40 trillion plus in debt. At some point you get into a hole so deep you can't climb out of it, so desperate times call for desperate measures."

Fiscal hawks like Republican Sens. Rand Paul and Ron Johnson expressed support for Johnson's position, with Paul calling for a "bipartisan, bicameral" panel to "discuss how to make Social Security and Medicare solvent," the Hill reports. But memories of George W. Bush's failed 2005 push to reform Social Security—and the electoral backlash that followed—have many Republicans keeping their distance. Bush's plan to partially privatize Social Security collapsed with Democrats unified in opposition and Republicans deeply divided.

Some Republicans, including Sen. Josh Hawley, say "reform" talk is usually code for benefit cuts they won't back. A GOP senator, speaking to the Hill on condition of anonymity, says reform has to be bipartisan because Republicans are "not going to walk the plank on Social Security reform all by themselves."

• A bipartisan group of senators—GOP Sens. Bill Cassidy and Thom Tillis and Democratic Sens. Dick Durbin and Tim Kaine issued a statement last week urging their colleagues to "legislate on hard issues and protect this lifeline program for our kids and grandkids." The ideas being floated range from higher payroll-tax caps to a later retirement age. Cassidy, Durbin, and Tillis, however, won't be in the Senate next year, and Kaine concedes that the odds of reform happening soon are low "because the history is we tackle it when we absolutely have to, right when we're up against a potential benefits cut."