What's Next in the Graham Platner Mess

Democrats at the national level and at the state level in Maine are in full scramble mode over Graham Platner. The Maine Senate candidate is expected to drop from the race soon, perhaps as early as Tuesday, after an ex-girlfriend's allegation that he sexually assaulted her while drunk. The 41-year-old oyster farmer denies it, as he has denied previous allegations of impropriety, but his campaign appears to be effectively dead this time with major supporters dropping. The fallout:

• His leverage: Punchbowl News notes that Platner has one last card to play in the form of leverage in choosing his successor. If he leaves before Monday, Democrats can replace him on the ballot, and they would have until July 27 to do so. Platner will likely agree to leave on time only if his replacement supports his progressive positions.
• The process: The state does not spell out how the Democratic Party would choose a successor, notes the New York Times. One option is to hold a "pop-up convention." Another is to have the state's party committee choose someone, but that appears to be unlikely.

• Contenders: Graham defeated Gov. Janet Mills in the primary, but neither Newsweek nor the New York Times see her as a strong favorite. Retiring Rep. Jared Golden is well-regarded, but he is intent on leaving Congress. Other names circulating include former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson, epidemiologist Nirav Shah, Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, and ex–House candidate Jordan Wood.
• Schumer: Punchbowl News expects Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer to have plenty of say in the pick in an I-told-you-so way. Schumer did not back Platner in the primary.
• The stakes: If Platner drops out before Monday, Democrats retain a chance of ousting GOP Sen. Susan Collins and thus of regaining control of the Senate, writes Chris Stirewalt at the Hill. If not, their chances of flipping the Senate drop dramatically, given that they need to win eight of 11 competitive Senate races. The take at Axios: "Democrats always faced an uphill battle in their effort to gain control of the Senate, given the makeup of this year's map. Their troubles in Maine have only made their quest more difficult."