Report: Mangione Is Expected to Plead Guilty on Friday

A possible plea deal in federal court for accused assassin Luigi Mangione isn't just about prison time—it could scramble the murder case that state prosecutors have been preparing to try first. Lawyers on both sides quietly asked a judge for a Friday conference in Mangione's federal case, triggering questions about whether he might plead to stalking resulting in death before facing New York's second-degree murder charge in state court. Sources tell the New York Times that Mangione is expected to plead guilty, though they warn that talks could fall apart before, or even during, the hearing.

• The order of operations matters because New York's double jeopardy rules are tougher than the federal standard and have already blown up a high-profile case once: state fraud charges against former Trump campaign chair Paul Manafort were tossed after his federal convictions, with courts finding the laws at issue targeted the same "harm."

• Here, a key question would be whether federal stalking resulting in death is legally distinct from the second-degree murder charge in New York, Fox News reports. Prosecutors earlier pushed to try the state case first, signaling they feared a federal resolution could arm Mangione's lawyers with a double jeopardy claim.
• A federal judge has already ruled stalking isn't a "crime of violence," a finding that could help the state argue the two statutes address different wrongs—though New York's law, experts note, leans heavily in defendants' favor. Mangione, accused of killing UnitedHealth Group CEO Brian Thompson on a Manhattan street in 2024, has pleaded not guilty in both cases.

• If no plea deal is reached, Mangione's state trial is scheduled to begin Sept. 8, with the federal trial due to begin on Jan. 5, per USA Today.
• The federal stalking charge carries a maximum sentence of life in prison with no possibility of parole, while the state charge carries a maximum of 25 years to life. Chicago-based defense attorney Donna Rotunno, host of Fox's Crime & Justice, says Mangione's team will probably consider a deal for anything lower than a life sentence to be a win. "Odds of him getting life are probably slim even after a trial, given the fact that he had no background, and the maximum is life," she says. "But either way, he would've gotten such a big number that odds of him getting out would be very slim."