Bond Selloff Nears Shaky Territory

The bond market's long slide is nearing a point that has Wall Street on edge, the Wall Street Journal reports. Yields on the 10-year Treasury—the benchmark for everything from mortgages to corporate loans—closed Thursday at 4.943%, brushing up against 5% for only the second time since the 2008 financial crisis. This is the most elevated level since 2023, Bloomberg reports. Rising oil prices (which jumped above $107 on Thursday, per the Guardian), a hotter wholesale inflation reading, and President Trump's pledge of $5,000 checks to Americans if Republicans keep Congress—an idea that would potentially boost the deficit by more than $1 trillion—helped drive the move.

The spike comes despite Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's expanded buybacks of long-term debt, which have had limited impact. Higher yields are pressuring stocks and borrowing costs: 30-year mortgage rates hit 6.76% this week, and traders now see a roughly 70% chance the Federal Reserve raises rates at its meeting next week.