Buoyed by Trump, El-Sayed Gains in Michigan

Abdul El-Sayed is now out front in Michigan's high-stakes Senate contest—and President Trump is a big reason why. A Suffolk University poll of 500 likely voters has the Democrat leading Republican Mike Rogers by 47% to 40%, reports USA Today, in a state Trump narrowly won in 2024. Nearly half of respondents said they're voting "to change the direction President Trump is leading the nation," while 20% want to back him, and 28% said the president didn't much factor into their vote. Rogers, perhaps reading those tea leaves, issued a campaign ad on Monday calling for a quick end to Trump's war in Iran, notes the Detroit News.

The survey points to broader trouble for Republicans in Michigan, where Trump's approval sits at 31% and his tariffs on Canada are widely viewed as a threat to the auto industry. Citing those two factors, along with "opposition to data centers and a tepid Michigan economy," independents have moved "away from Republican candidates," says Suffolk's Political Research Center director David Paleologos. "That's markedly different from 2024." Democrat Jocelyn Benson holds a 17-point edge in the Michigan governor's race. The poll finds that El-Sayed, who would be the first Muslim US senator, is backed by 72% of Black voters and 88% of Democrats overall. (El-Sayed is among the few Democrats in high-profile races welcoming the help of former Vice President Kamala Harris.)