Election Forecast Puts House GOP Majority on the Brink

The math in the House isn't looking optimistic for Republicans at the moment. The Cook Political Report on Friday shifted 15 races in Democrats' favor and now sees Democrats on track to net between five and 15 seats—more than the three they need to seize the gavel in November, reports Axios. As it stands, Democrats are favored in 208 contests, Republicans in 205, with 22 toss-ups left to decide control. And the path for the GOP is getting narrower: Seventeen of those toss-up seats are currently Republican-held, meaning the party would need to win most of them to hang on. Many of the most competitive districts backed President Trump in 2024, but Trump's popularity has declined since then, particularly over the economy, Cook says.

"Despite a push for mid-decade redistricting, a massive reserve of cash, and an unpopular opposition party, Republicans are on track to lose their House majority this November," writes Cook analyst Erin Cover, per the Washington Examiner. National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Mike Marinella downplayed the concern, saying that "nobody outside the DC bubble cares what a bunch of pundits slap on a race rating." Democratic counterpart Courtney Rice, however, said "the floor is falling out from underneath House Republicans."