On Eve of NYC Vote, a Surprise in the Polls

The final poll from Emerson College in the closely watched Democratic primary for New York City mayor has a surprise: It shows Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani defeating former Gov. Andrew Cuomo. The New York Post describes the result, which comes one day before the election, as "stunning." Details:

• Overall: The survey by Emerson College Polling/PIX11/the Hill has Cuomo leading Mamdani by 35% to 32% overall, reports the Hill. City comptroller Brad Lander is third at 13%, with others in single digits.
• The catch: The bad news for Cuomo is that the city uses ranked-choice voting. In this system, voters can rank up to five candidates. If nobody wins outright with 50% on the first count, those rankings get factored into the count until a winner emerges. According to Emerson's simulation, Mamdani ultimately triumphs over Cuomo after eight rounds of tabulations. NBC News has an explainer.

• Lander is key: In this case, Emerson sees most of Lander's votes eventually going to Mamdani, a city assemblyman. (Lander was recently arrested outside immigration court after showing up in support of a migrant.)
• The stakes: An analysis at Politico suggests the race has national implications. "Can a young leftist appeal to the party's traditional base of older Black voters?" writes Jonathan Martin. "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is watching." In terms of Cuomo, who is trying to make a comeback after allegations of sexual impropriety: "Has the backlash to so-called wokeness that sanitized (President) Trump last year reached into Democratic ranks so voters will reluctantly vote for the S.O.B.-we-know? And would Cuomo take such support as a vote of confidence and quickly begin running for president himself in 2028?"