White House staffers have received a pointed reminder: Don't turn insider access into winning wagers. Sources tell the Wall Street Journal that the White House Management Office emailed all staff about the issue on March 24, a day after President Trump first paused his threat to "obliterate" Iran's power plants—and 15 minutes after an unusually large spike in oil futures trading. About $760 million in oil futures changed hands in under two minutes before Trump's public announcement. Three Polymarket accounts later made more than $600,000 correctly betting on this week's timing of an Iran ceasefire, fueling suspicions that someone was trading on advance knowledge.
The White House confirmed the email and denied any wrongdoing, with spokesman Davis Ingle telling the BBC that suggestions administration officials "are engaged in such activity without evidence is baseless and irresponsible reporting." Ingle said President Trump has been "crystal clear" that "members of Congress and other government officials should be prohibited from using nonpublic information for financial benefit." There are already rules banning federal employees from profiting from insider information, but an official who received the email tells the Journal that it was a worthwhile "refresher" because suspicious bets are "hot in the news."
There's no evidence yet of leaks or illegal betting, but the episode underscores how prediction markets—and their anonymity—are testing old ethics rules, the Journal reports. Some Democrats want to crack down: Sens. Richard Blumenthal and Andy Kim have proposed banning prediction markets tied to war, arguing they "are turning war into a casino game, and creating a market for national security leaks."
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