Surprise Tornadoes Raise Q's About Weather Service Cuts

Residents near Kansas City, Kansas, didn't get much advance warning before tornadoes tore through the area on Monday night, and that's now fueling questions about cuts and staffing changes at the National Weather Service. At least five tornadoes formed southwest of the city, damaging homes, toppling trees, flipping RVs, and injuring at least three people, reports NBC News. The strongest tornado, an EF2, packed estimated winds around 125mph. Yet as of Monday afternoon, the Storm Prediction Center's outlook didn't flag a tornado threat for the metro area, and tornado watches weren't issued until about 6:35pm, roughly 30 minutes before the first twister touched down.

Some meteorologists outside of the agency say a shift in weather balloon launches may have played a role. Multiple NWS offices across the Plains skipped their traditional 7am balloon release and waited until midday, a move several experts link to ongoing staffing shortages after federal workforce cuts. That left a wide swath of the region without early upper-air data that feeds into forecast models. "We are missing data at the normal times," says meteorologist Chris Vagasky. "People think of it as, 'Oh, weather balloons, how quaint,'" David Mechem, who heads up the atmospheric science program at the University of Kansas, warned in the University Daily Kansan late last year. "But nothing is as good as flying instruments up through the atmosphere and actually measuring things."

NWS officials reject the idea that the altered balloon schedule is degrading forecasts. Spokesperson Erica Grow Cei said performance metrics show "no evidence of degradation" in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's models. But former and current forecasters say the issue merits study, noting that some models are timed to run before the delayed balloon data arrives. The Kansas surprise comes on the heels of a deadly Michigan tornado event last month, where no watch was issued ahead of time, prompting a letter from two Democratic lawmakers pressing the agency on staffing and improving alerts. At least one pundit issued a warning last June on how NWS cuts might play out in Kansas.