Ahead of Ceasefire Deadline, 'New Cards on the Battlefield'

With the clock ticking on a fragile ceasefire, Washington is betting talks with Iran in Pakistan will still happen this week, even as Tehran hesitates. The United States says it expects negotiations in Islamabad to resume on Wednesday, with Vice President JD Vance, who's set to head overseas on Tuesday, slated to attend and President Trump potentially joining if a deal is within reach, reports Reuters. An Iranian official said Tehran is "positively reviewing" participation but wants certain conditions met, including acknowledgment of its right to enrich uranium. Iran's Foreign Ministry is also demanding the release of an impounded Iranian vessel, per the New York Times.

The truce in the US- and Israeli-led war on Iran, announced for two weeks from April 7 but now said by US and Pakistani sources to run through 8pm ET on Wednesday, is about to expire, notes Reuters. Oil prices loosened slightly on optimism about the talks, after jumping about 6% Monday on doubts they'd resume. In what the Wall Street Journal depicts as "mixed messages," Iran's leadership is signaling both openness and defiance. A senior commander promised a swift response to any renewed attacks, and a chief Iranian negotiator says they won't negotiate under threat and that they've got "new cards on the battlefield," per NBC News.

Trump is pushing for an agreement that reins in Iran's nuclear capabilities and stabilizes energy markets, while Tehran aims to leverage control over the Strait of Hormuz to win sanctions relief without giving up core parts of its nuclear program, per Reuters. It's the energy situation that UN chief Antonio Guterres focused on during remarks on Tuesday, calling what's going on "the most severe energy crisis in a generation," reports the AP. "Fossil fuels are not just wrecking our planet, they are holding economies hostage," he noted.