More than 17 million people along the US Atlantic and Gulf coasts are at the highest risk of being affected by flooding, with New York and New Orleans standing out, according to one of the most comprehensive studies ever of flood risk. The AP reports that University of Alabama researchers first looked at 16 factors, including geographic hazards, the population and infrastructure exposed, and the vulnerability of people living in each location. They then brought in past damages from the FEMA's database and applied three different AI tools to figure out flood risks from Texas to Maine, calculating that 17.5 million people were at "very high" risk, while an additional 17 million were at "high" risk, the next level.
The authors looked at all sizes of flooding and examined separately what FEMA considers the most extreme, which are the top 1% of events. The study found 4.3 million people along the coasts to be at the highest level of risk of extreme flooding, but 20.5 million to be at high risk, the second highest level. They found a lot of vulnerability, highlighting eight different cities from Houston, which flooded in 2017's Hurricane Harvey, to New York, which was inundated by 2012's Superstorm Sandy. Wednesday's study in the journal Science Advances found that New York City has 4.75 million people at the two highest risk levels for all flooding, with more than 200,000 buildings likely to be damaged.
And while the number of people at risk in New Orleans is far lower, about 380,000, it involves 99% of the city's population. That doesn't mean 99% of the people will be affected in the next hurricane or nontropical flood, but that they might be depending on the storm's individual path and rain pattern, said study co-author Wanyun Shao, a climate scientist at the University of Alabama. "Just look at the magnitude," Shao said. "Those numbers are shocking." The elderly and poor are most at risk, Shao added. Flood problems are becoming more frequent in New York and New Orleans due to human-caused climate change, per the study.
Other cities are also threatened. Jacksonville has 679,000 people at high or very high risk of flooding, while Houston is a bit behind that, at just under 600,000. Other cities highlighted include Miami; Norfolk, Virginia; Charleston, South Carolina; and Mobile, Alabama. Study lead author Hemal Dey said he hopes local officials look at not just building more dams and levees, but also more natural infrastructure such as wetlands, grasslands, rain gardens, and estuaries. "The research is solid confirmation of what emergency managers have been saying for years," said Craig Fugate, a former FEMA director who wasn't part of the study. "Realtors will hate it." More here.
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