Kamala Harris isn't on California's ballot this year, but her absence is looming over the governor's race. Under the state's top-two primary system, Democrats are staring at an uncomfortable possibility, reports the New York Times: a November matchup that doesn't include their party at all. Eight candidates are running, but strategists say no one has broken through like Harris likely would have. A 2023 poll put her at 31% in a hypothetical race, with everyone else stuck in single digits; her indecision effectively froze the field for months before she ultimately said no last summer. Instead of running for governor, Harris is on a national book tour and publicly flirting with a 2028 presidential bid—a move some Democrats, like Third Way's Matt Bennett, see as a riskier play, given the baggage of defending the Biden years.
With onetime frontrunner Eric Swalwell out on account of scandal, the current lineup includes Democrats Xavier Becerra, Katie Porter, Tom Steyer, Matt Mahan, Antonio Villaraigosa, and Tony Thurmond, plus Republicans Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton. Privately, many party figures call the field underwhelming, and activists are even urging voters to hold their mail-in ballots in hopes a clear Democrat emerges. "It's pretty obvious she would have dominated the race," says political consultant Lara Bergthold. "It felt like it was an easy win and an easy walk into the governor's mansion here."
Harris is now a long shot: with the deadline to get on the ballot long gone, she would have to mount a write-in campaign, and soon, reports Patch: the deadline to file a statement of write-in candidacy is May 19. Strategist David Axelrod likens the contest to a "high-stakes NASCAR race where the cars aren't going very fast, but running each other off the road before one rushes to the front at the end."
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