Poll Shows Clear Frontrunner in Race to Replace Newsom

Xavier Becerra is 'in a very strong position now,' pollster says
Posted May 28, 2026 11:55 AM CDT
Poll Shows Becerra With Clear Lead in California
California gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra appears at a town hall meeting in Sacramento, Monday, May 11, 2026.   (AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli)

Robert F. Kennedy's predecessor may be on course to become Gavin Newsom's successor. Xavier Becerra, who served as health secretary during the Biden administration, is emerging as the frontrunner to replace the California governor, a newly released poll suggests, with just days to go before California's June 2 primary. The mid-May survey from the Public Policy Institute of California puts the Democrat at 23% and Republican Steve Hilton close behind at 20%, with Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer trailing at 15%, Politico reports. In California's top-two system, that would likely set up a Becerra–Hilton faceoff in November—a scenario that, given the state's partisan tilt, would strongly favor Becerra.

"He's in a very strong position now," PPIC survey director Mark Baldassare says of Becerra. "If there are two Democrats, we'll see what happens, but if it's a Democrat and a Republican, we know what the voter registration shows in California." Steyer's camp argues the poll is stale, saying it doesn't reflect late-May TV attacks on Becerra's oil-industry backing. Two polls released last week, one of them sponsored by Steyer's campaign, put Hilton in first place, with Steyer and Becerra close behind, the Desert Sun reports. The race was upended last month when former Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell withdrew amid sexual assault allegations.

While Democrats are likely to extend a hold on the governor's mansion that began when Arnold Schwarzenegger left office in 2011, voters may see far tighter battles over ballot measures, according to the PPIC. A proposed one-time tax on billionaires leads 54–45 but faces a looming, big-money opposition campaign. A Republican-backed voter ID initiative has 49% support, with Democrats and independents strongly against it. Both measures appear likely to qualify for the November ballot. Despite recent angst over possible one-party shutouts, 59% of Californians still back the state's nonpartisan primary system, the poll found.

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