A conflict that once looked containable is now spilling across borders in ways that damaging to both President Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, writes Gideon Rachman in the Financial Times. Iran's allies, particularly Yemen's Houthi militia, have opened a new front by seizing much of Yemen's Red Sea coast and striking Saudi energy infrastructure, including the kingdom's key East-West pipeline. Those attacks threaten the backup routes meant to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, raising the risk of sharper disruptions to global oil supplies just as Western countries head into winter.
"The US-Iran war can be seen as a three-dimensional conflict," writes Rachman. "The first dimension is the battlefield. The second is the economic conflict. The third is the battle of narratives. All three are linked and currently turning against the US." Iran has shown it can withstand initial strikes, hit US partners, and choke energy routes, while its authoritarian system insulates leaders from public anger in a way Trump cannot match if gasoline prices climb. Meanwhile, Trump reportedly rebuffed MBS' push for rapid strikes on the Houthis, a sign Washington grasps the limits of force against battle-hardened local actors.
A Washington Post analysis by Gerry Shih and Sammy Westfall similarly argues that the Houthis' rapid takeover of the Bab al-Mandab Strait late last week might be Iran's biggest victory of the conflict so far. Friday was "the first day that Iran really started winning the war," one Yemeni official tells the newspaper. The sentiment is echoed by Dennis Citrinowicz of the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv: "This is a major, almost unprecedented, strategic achievement for Iran and the Houthis."
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