Democrats Gain Confidence About Midterm Blue Wave

Democrats are starting to sound like a party that thinks the wave might actually show up. Strong post-Labor Day polling, stubbornly high gas prices, and President Trump's low approval ratings have party leaders openly talking about taking back the House—and maybe the Senate—in November. "If the election were held today, we would win the majority," Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer tells the Washington Post. He likened the climate to 2006, when backlash to the Iraq War helped Democrats flip both chambers. The nonpartisan VoteHub gives Democrats an 84% chance of taking the House and a 55% chance on the Senate.

Republicans still hold structural and financial advantages, notes the Post: a favorable House map thanks to redistricting, a massive ad-spending edge in top races, and what they argue are weak Democratic candidates. But internal GOP anxiety is mounting as polls show Democrats more eager to vote and some Republicans in deep-red territory suddenly needing help. Many GOP candidates, meanwhile, seem split over whether to embrace Trump or keep him at arm's length as his trade policies and Iran strategy drive up prices—an issue he has downplayed. As a counter to this narrative, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise tells Axios he thinks it's possible the GOP can increase its lead and land at 225 seats. "If we make it a contrast election, we win," Scalise he says.