Khamenei's Likely Successor Emerges

Iran's powerful clerical body is moving toward a dynastic handoff at the very top. Three Iranian officials who spoke to the New York Times say Mojtaba Khamenei, the 56-year-old son of slain supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has emerged as the leading candidate to inherit his father's post after meetings of the Assembly of Experts on Tuesday. An announcement could come as soon as Wednesday, though some clerics reportedly worry that naming him now would make him an even bigger target for the US and Israel. CNN reported over the weekend that "father-to-son succession is frowned upon in the Shiite Muslim clerical establishment and particularly in a revolutionary Iran that came about after toppling a widely reviled monarchy."

But Mojtaba, long influential but rarely seen, is closely aligned with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards, and the officials say the Guard is strongly backing him as the safest pair of hands in a crisis. Analysts say his selection would signal dominance by Iran's most hard-line security forces, though a Tehran-based commentator predicts a backlash from parts of the public already angered by the regime's lethal crackdown on protesters. Two other finalists, cleric Alireza Arafi and revolution founder Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's grandson Seyed Hassan Khomeini, are viewed as relative moderates. One political ally has argued Mojtaba could surprise as a reform-minded figure, likening his potential role to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's—while others, including President Trump, warn Iran could simply end up with a leader as tough as the last.