Diplomats are scrambling to avert what sources describe as a potentially explosive next phase of the US-Iran war, with a 45-day ceasefire on the table but no agreement yet in sight. Four US, Israeli, and regional officials tell Axios that Washington and Tehran are working through Pakistani, Egyptian, and Turkish mediators—and via texts between Trump envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi—on a two-step framework: an initial 45-day pause in fighting to negotiate a permanent end to the war, followed by a final deal. The AP notes that Israel on Monday attacked a key petrochemical plant at Iran's massive South Pars natural gas field and killed a top Revolutionary Guard commander, calling into question the ceasefire negotiations.
President Trump, who has repeatedly threatened to "blow up everything over there" if talks fail, quietly extended his self-imposed deadline for a deal to Tuesday 8pm ET. Two sources say a joint US-Israeli air campaign plan targeting Iran's energy infrastructure is ready. Such strikes could hit civilian facilities and draw Iranian retaliation on oil and water infrastructure in Israel and Gulf states, raising war-crime concerns. The sticking points: Iran's leverage over the Strait of Hormuz and its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Mediators are exploring limited, first-phase steps on both, as well as US guarantees the ceasefire won't be a prelude to resumed attacks. Publicly, Iranian officials remain tough, with the Revolutionary Guard navy warning the strait's status will "never return" to prewar norms.
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