Former US officials expect Iran to push hard in talks this weekend in Pakistan, armed with new leverage from its grip on the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran's sway over the main passageway for a large share of the world's energy shipments has strengthened its hand despite battlefield setbacks, they say, per the Wall Street Journal. "Iran got its backside kicked militarily, but strategically, they're in a far stronger position," said Alan Eyre, who was a US negotiator on the Iran nuclear deal. He argued that Iran now sees control of the strait as a strategic deterrent, reducing pressure to advance its nuclear program to weapons capability.
The US and Iran remain far apart on core questions, including the future of Tehran's nuclear activities. "I don't actually think there is a zone of agreement between the US and Iran, at least between the Trump administration and Iran, based on what the two of them are laying out right now," said Ilan Goldenberg, a former Pentagon Iran team chief. He predicted both governments will face strong pressure not to restart open conflict, making a prolonged, uneasy stalemate the most likely outcome. Robert Malley, special envoy to Iran under Joe Biden, per the Guardian, said: "The Strait of Hormuz wasn't an issue before the US decided to strike. You have all the issues inherited from the past, but you just added a few." Vice President JD Vance is on his way to Islamabad; the Iranian delegation reportedly has arrived, per the AP.
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