Analysis Puts Death Toll in European Heat at 20K

A new estimate suggests Europe's latest heat blast may have been even deadlier than early reports indicate. Climate scientist Christopher Callahan of Indiana University projects roughly 20,400 heat-related deaths across the continent between June 22 and 28, Gizmodo reports, in what scientists have already described as Europe's most extreme heat event on record. His analysis, posted as a preprint on Zenodo and not yet peer reviewed, uses a statistical model of how mortality shifts as temperatures rise across more than 900 regions in Europe. Callahan estimates the highest death tolls in France, Germany, Spain, and Italy, with France alone projected to have more than 5,000 heat-linked fatalities.

France recorded its hottest day ever on June 23, and health officials there have reported over 1,000 excess deaths in just a four-day span. The World Health Organization notes Europe is warming at twice the global average, with some 150 million people currently under extreme heat. Research from World Weather Attribution finds heat now kills more Europeans than any other natural hazard, and Callahan argues the continent may be nearing the limits of how much adaptation can offset the rising risk as temperatures regularly push past 104 degrees Fahrenheit. Forecasters warn temperatures could rise again to dangerous levels over the next few days in France and Spain, per the Guardian.