Iran's most potent shield in its showdown with the US and Israel isn't buried in a mountain—it's sitting in plain sight on a map. Even after weeks of strikes on its leadership, major naval ships, and missile factories, Iran still holds enough drones and short-range missiles to threaten traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passage that carries about a fifth of the world's oil. The conflict has shown that Tehran can raise global prices and rattle war planners, the New York Times reports, simply by signaling it might close the channel. As the Atlantic puts it, Iran has discovered "that it already had an extremely effective doomsday weapon—one that promised the economic equivalent of mutual assured destruction."
US officials estimate Iran retains roughly 40% of its attack drones and around 60% of its missile launchers, enough to menace commercial shipping, which lacks the defenses of American warships. The new Trump administration priority is to find a way to reopen a waterway that was unobstructed when the war began, per the Times. The US has responded with a naval blockade that is choking off Iran's seaborne trade, which makes up about 90% of its economy. Analysts said the lesson for Iran's leaders is clear: Regardless of future nuclear limits, simply being able to close the Strait of Hormuz is a powerful deterrent. "Everyone now knows that if there is a conflict in the future, closing the strait will be the first thing in the Iranian textbook," said Danny Citrinowicz, a former head of the Iran branch of Israel's military intelligence agency. "You cannot beat geography."
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