Deportations Linked to Job Losses for US-Born Workers

One of the Trump administration's core promises on immigration—fewer undocumented workers means more and better jobs for Americans—isn't panning out that way, according to new research. A National Bureau of Economic Research study finds stepped-up deportations between January and October 2025 reduced jobs in four immigrant-heavy industries—agriculture, construction, manufacturing, and wholesale—without lifting pay, the New York Times reports. Male undocumented employment in those sectors fell 5%, while jobs for US-born men without college degrees slipped 1.3%.

• The NBER describes itself as a "private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research."

The study found that construction was hit hardest: for every immigration arrest, six American-born workers and four undocumented workers lost their jobs, with no sign that employers raised wages to attract new staff. Instead, work simply slowed, feeding into an already tight construction labor market and a worsening housing shortage. The researchers estimate that 15% of workers in the industry are undocumented. "Construction companies view it as easier to reduce production, reduce the construction of new homes and new buildings in general, rather than try to increase wages for US-born workers," says study co-author Chloe East, an economics professor at the University of Colorado, Boulder.

• A study of the construction industry in 2024, before Trump returned to office, found that deporting immigrants in lower-skilled positions reduced jobs for higher-skilled US-born workers, including electricians, the Washington Post reports. "Regardless of whether we're talking about mass deportations in the 1930s, the 2010s, or 2025, the results are really similar, which is that mass deportations are not helpful for the labor market overall and do not create more job opportunities for US-born workers," East says.

The findings contrast with White House claims that the crackdowns helped construction, which has seen a drop in permits and residential building jobs. Contractors from Los Angeles to Minneapolis report project delays, "self-deportations" of skilled workers with decades of experience, and trouble finding replacements. Samantha Jones, a general contractor in South Florida who lost 14 of her 34 workers to arrest or self-deportation last year, tells the Times that projects are now taking twice as long to complete. She says the workers arrived with specialized skills, including carpentry. "People think we hire migrant workers because they're cheap labor," she says. "It's not because they're cheap labor; it's just that their skill set fits our industry better."