Want to See the Future? Pay Attention to El Nino

This year's powerful El Nino is something of a "time machine," the Washington Post reports. Specifically, it's expected to provide an early look at what temperatures will be like throughout the next decade. The 2026 iteration of the natural weather phenomenon is expected to push global temperatures next year to where scientists wouldn't normally expect them until the late 2030s, according to an analysis by Berkeley Earth climate scientist Zeke Hausfather. He says it's all but certain that 2027 will set a heat record, with global temperatures forecast around 1.76 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels.

"I'm not sure folks have realized just how crazy the second half of 2026 and 2027 will be for global temperatures—on the back of a record-smashing El Nino event," Hausfather wrote on X earlier this month. That spike comes from El Nino layering on top of long-term warming driven by greenhouse gas emissions and reduced cooling from aerosols. Researchers say 2026 could challenge existing records, with 2027 even hotter, before a slight dip in 2028. The heat jump is also likely to drive record global moisture, raising the odds of more extreme rainfall. Even ordinary El Ninos can give temperatures a significant boost, and forecasting models say the 2026 version may be the strongest one ever, notes Gizmodo.