El Nino is officially back—and scientists say this one could be a heavyweight. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday confirmed that El Nino conditions have formed in the tropical Pacific, with sea surface temperatures now 0.5 degrees Celsius above average, reports the BBC. Forecasts suggest this one could morph into a "super" El Nino and rank among the strongest ever. Meteorologists say it could rival—or exceed—a record El Nino that began in 1997 and helped trigger billions of dollars in damage from heat waves, floods, droughts, tornadoes, and wildfires, per the AP.
NOAA puts the chance of a "very strong" event (the scientific term for a super El Nino) at 63%, meaning water temperature in the tropical Pacific rises to more than 2 degrees Celsius above average, notes CNN. Some US and European models project Pacific waters more than 3°C above normal by year's end. The weather pattern's effects vary by region. El Nino often dampens—but doesn't eliminate—Atlantic hurricane season activity, but increases it in the Pacific. So while the US East and Gulf coasts may get a break, Hawaii and other islands are more in danger. Some specifics:
- In the US, El Ninos can cause more intense storms with heavier rainfall in the South, but they also tend to generally benefit the US agriculture industry.
- The northern Rockies and Southwest—where there's an "off the charts" snow drought—could get some strong summer rains. The biggest effect in the US is often in the winter, when the South can get wetter and the Pacific Northwest warmer and drier.
- The drought-stricken Middle East could benefit, climate scientists said. Other places are looking at more danger. Parts of western South America—where the first El Ninos were noticed decades ago—often get heavy rain and floods, along with an extra warm summer. India faces more intense heat waves, while drought, wildfires, and heat threaten Australia.
- Northeastern Africa is likely going to get weather whiplash from intense drought to dangerously heavy rains.
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