President Trump's trade fight with Canada may be trouble for Republicans in November, writes Greg Sargent at the New Republic. His analysis argues that the impact of Canada's retaliatory tariffs will land squarely on Midwestern economies that powered Trump's past wins. Think Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio—states with competitive House and Senate races and heavy exposure to farm exports, agricultural machinery, and auto supply chains. "Control of the House will turn in no small part on three very competitive House races in Iowa, one in Wisconsin, and three or four in Pennsylvania," he writes. In addition, Democrat Josh Turek is in a tight race in Iowa for a Senate seat that will help decide which party controls that chamber.
Democratic candidates are already using the tariffs as a battering ram. Turek and others say farmers and manufacturers are getting squeezed by higher costs and shrinking markets, setting up what Sargent sees as a "potent" message against Republicans: "that they've done nothing to resist the tariffs, even though the levies constitute a huge usurpation of their own power—that is, of Congress's power to tax." Sargent frames the Canada fight as part of a broader pattern: Trump's "America First" policies—trade wars, mass deportations, foreign-policy shifts—may be fueling a backlash in precisely the region most associated with Trump-style populism. Read his full piece.
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