For the First Time, Older Adults Outnumber Young Kids

For the first time in recorded history, the world now has more people 65 and older than children under 5, a shift driven by falling birthrates and longer lives, per a new US Census report. In 2023, more than 71% of the global population lived in countries at or below the 2.1-births-per-woman "replacement" level, up from 45% a decade earlier—a tipping point that arrived much earlier than expected, Axios reports. The world's two most populous countries, China and India, now have fertility rates below replacement level, as do Bangladesh, Mexico, and Vietnam.

The number of people 65+ is projected to jump from 852 million in 2025 to 2 billion in 2060, accounting for more than half of all net population growth. That means fewer workers supporting more retirees, straining pensions and health systems. Asia will see the biggest surge in seniors; Africa will stay youngest but see its older population more than quadruple.

• The report notes that the COVID pandemic, which caused around 15 million excess deaths in 2020 and 2021, mostly among older people, temporarily slowed the pace of aging worldwide, but it may have also led to "rapid and lasting" declines in fertility. In China, the already low fertility rate plummeted to 1.06 by 2023, one of the lowest in the world.

• Report contributor Andrew Scott says negativity about the aging population "is a strange response to one of the greatest achievements of the 20th century—gains to life expectancy that mean we mourn the loss of fewer infants, experience fewer parents snatched away in midlife, and witness more grandparents meeting their grandchildren."
• Scott argues that the demographic change could lead to societies seeing old age as an asset instead of a burden, Axios reports. "While the older population may leave the labor force as they reach eligibility for retirement, many continue to contribute to society through volunteering their time to help their families and communities," the report states. "More research on social participation and volunteering and its relationship to health and well-being will lead to insights on how the older population can continue to engage, contribute, and thrive in society."