Iowa is usually safe ground for Republican candidates, but a number of reports suggest this year's midterms might be a different story. "In Iowa, we should brace for losing everything, definitely the governor's race and maybe the Senate race and who knows what else," one GOP campaign consultant tells Axios. As the report and another in the Washington Post explain, the problem is that the state's farmers have been hammered by higher gas and diesel prices, higher fertilizer prices, and trade disputes with Canada and China, two usually large buyers. And though President Trump carried the state by more than 13 points in 2024, he and the party are taking the brunt of the blame.
According to the Cook Political Report, the Senate race between GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek is a toss-up, as are two of the state's four congressional races, while the governor's race leans Democratic. What's more, the state's senior senator, Republican Chuck Grassley, is 93 and openly raising the possibility that he could die in office—making the governor's race all the more important because the winner would appoint his successor. Meanwhile, conservative radio host Steve Deace sounded the alarm on social media that GOP candidates in Iowa were receiving internal warnings from pollsters about this year's bleak numbers. The White House is taking notice: On Monday, Trump announced a new steel plant for the state, though the financial benefits of that are years away.
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