Voters in a string of states that reliably back Republicans for Senate are sounding increasingly open to supporting Democrats this fall. New polling from the New York Times and Siena College shows Democrats leading or tied in five states that President Trump has previously carried: Texas, Alaska, Ohio, Kansas, and Iowa. The findings suggest Democrats now have multiple, though still difficult, routes to capturing the four GOP-held seats they need to reclaim the Senate. "Not only is there a swing away from the Republican Party compared to 2024, but the swing actually seems to be somewhat bigger in red America than in blue America," said David Hopkins, a political science professor at Boston College, per Reuters, "and that's putting these states that Trump won easily very much into play."
Democrats are up 6 points in Texas and 7 in Alaska, hold a narrow edge in Ohio, are even in Kansas, and trail by 1 in Iowa, the polls show, per the Times. The shift appears driven by frustration with the cost of living and Trump's handling of the Iran war and gas prices; across the five states, nearly half of voters want a senator who will act as a check on Trump, while just over a quarter prefer a candidate who will back him. Independents are breaking sharply toward Democrats, who hold double-digit trust advantages on health care, cost of living, and "doing what's best for ordinary people."
A 30-year-old independent in Texas said he's voted for Trump but backs Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico, largely because of rising costs. "He's the one actually listening and hearing that those are problems," Austin Vaughn said. "And the Republicans on the other side are gaslighting everyone and saying they aren't real problems."
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