GOP Pollster Warns Blue Wave Hype Outpaces Political Reality

Pollster Patrick Ruffini has a message for Democrats eyeing a "blue wave" in deep-red Senate territory: Don't bet the farm on it. The GOP strategist tells Politico that public polling is overstating how large the Senate battleground really is, in part because Democrats are far more likely to respond to surveys than Republicans—a "warning sign for polling in this cycle," he says.

Ruffini sees Democrats favored to retake the House but calls the Senate a toss-up, giving Republicans a 50-50 shot of hanging on, likely with 50 seats. He's doubtful that states Trump carried by double digits—like Iowa, Ohio, and Kansas—will suddenly flip, citing past polling errors in the Midwest and hardened partisan lines. If a true blue wave does crash through those states, he argues, it would mark a rare break in today's polarized era. Click for the full interview. (Yahoo News also recently ran down just how much the polls should be trusted.)