Democrats just got a fresh boost on the midterms horse-race scoreboard. The Cook Political Report on Friday shifted 12 more House contests in their direction, now projecting the party to see at least 218 seats in the "Lean Democrat" category or better, with possibly as many as 240 seats gained, reports the Hill. That would be enough to keep control of the chamber, with several once-comfortable Republican districts now recast as competitive. "While Democrats won't reach the 257 seats they had following President Barack Obama's election—a high water mark for them this century—they could surpass the majorities they had following the 2006 and 2018 blue wave cycles," Erin Covey writes for CPR.
Among the notable moves: Three seats in Colorado's 5th, Pennsylvania's 1st, and South Carolina's 1st (two of them GOP-held, one open) shifted into the "Toss Up" column, while Pennsylvania's 8th and Ohio's 9th now officially tilt Democratic. Some previously safe Republican districts in Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, and Washington also look shakier, amid concerns over low GOP turnout, Trump's sliding approval, and downballot effects from Senate races.
Per the Washington Post, a look at all CPR ratings going back more than 40 years shows that 97% of its entries in the "Likely" category have ended up being accurate, with a still-impressive 94% in the "Leans" ratings. NPR and ABC News feature some of the House races to keep tabs on, while US News & World Report meticulously details how Democrats might build a majority in that chamber. Still, Reuters notes six reasons why a midterms "landslide" may not happen for the Dems.
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