Texas, NC Dems Set the Stage for a Senate Takeover

The first primaries of the 2026 midterm cycle in Texas and North Carolina have set up key Senate contests and exposed vulnerabilities for some incumbents in multiple congressional races. Results so far point to a costly Republican showdown in Texas, a marquee Senate race in North Carolina, and early signs of voter confusion at the polls that could fuel future disputes. Some takeaways, per NPR, the Hill, and Axios:

• Texas GOP: A three-way Republican Senate primary in Texas between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, state Attorney General Ken Paxton, and Rep. Wesley Hunt is headed to a runoff between Cornyn and Paxton after no candidate cleared 50%, extending what NPR calls the most expensive Senate primary in history and raising questions about whether President Trump will announce an endorsement before the May 26 vote. Axios notes that the GOP avoided its "worst nightmare," as some national Republicans feared a clear victory for the controversial Paxton that would set the stage for a GOP loss in the general.

• Texas Dems: On the Democratic side in the Lone Star State, state Rep. James Talarico defeated US Rep. Jasmine Crockett in a race that NPR describes as a clash of political styles rather than ideology, with both candidates running as progressives but Talarico pitching a left-populist message and supporters arguing he can better appeal to moderates in a state Democrats haven't won statewide since 1994.
• Voting issues: In Texas' Dallas County, a change in poll sites caused confusion, sending hundreds of voters to the wrong locations. A county judge ordered the polls kept open two hours later; the Texas Supreme Court then intervened and said any votes that came in after 7pm local time must be kept separately from the final tally. Crockett complained of voters being "disenfranchised."
• North Carolina: It will be former Dem Gov. Roy Cooper facing off against ex-RNC Chair Michael Whatley in the general, with the Hill noting that the Tar Heel State "is seen as a key pickup opportunity for Democrats," as incumbent Republican Thom Tillis steps aside for retirement. Cooper has a tall task ahead of him—NPR notes that he's trying to flip a Senate seat in a state that went for Trump three times—but the outlet also points out he's won before in the state and is pushing a possibly appealing message of affordability and independence.
• Team Blue's momentum: In both of these key states, "Democratic turnout surged," per the Hill. In Texas, which NPR calls the Dems' "white whale, their Lucy and the football," Dem voters especially came out in heavily Hispanic counties near the Rio Grande Valley.
• Incumbents: It was a tough night for those fighting to keep their seats in Congress, starting with Cornyn and trickling down to Texas GOP Rep. Dan Crenshaw, who lost by double digits to challenger Steve Toth; Republican Rep. Tony Gonzalez, who's headed to a runoff against gun-rights influencer Brandon Herrera, despite news of an alleged Gonzalez affair; and Texas Democratic Rep. Al Green, who appeared headed to a runoff against US Rep. Christian Menefee in a newly redrawn district.

More takeways from the BBC and Reuters.