Americans could soon see $5-a-gallon gas again—and not because of summer road trips. JP Morgan energy analysts say prices at the pump, already up $1.16 since the Iran war began on Feb. 28, could cross that threshold as early as later this month if the Strait of Hormuz stays effectively shut through mid-April, CBS News reports. The current national average sits at $4.14, up from $2.98 pre-conflict, per AAA. GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan likewise warns that new records for both gasoline and diesel are "possible," especially if US-Iran tensions intensify. The average price hit a record of $5.02 per gallon in June 2022.
The financial hit could be sizable. JP Morgan analysts estimate that each 10-cent increase adds more than $12 billion to Americans' annual fuel bill, and that this year's jump, if it holds, would slice roughly $100 billion from consumer purchasing power—gobbling up "much or all" of the larger tax refunds many expected under the "One Big Beautiful Bill" Republicans passed last year. The US Energy Information Administration, the Department of Energy's statistical arm, warned Tuesday that prices could remain high for months even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, Reuters reports.
"Just as we had never before seen the strait close, we've never seen it reopen. What exactly that looks like remains to be seen," the EIA said. It predicted that prices will peak at $4.30 this month, but will remain higher than $3.70 for the rest of the year. The squeeze stems from sharply reduced oil traffic through the strategic strait: ship crossings plunged from about 130 per day in February to just six in March, according to a UN panel. President Trump has been pressuring Iran to reopen the route with increasingly dire threats. He warned on Tuesday that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if it remains closed past an 8pm Tuesday deadline.
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