Warsh Refuses to Drop Rate Hints

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh isn't budging from his no-hints rule. In Portugal for the European Central Bank's policy forum, Warsh was asked Wednesday whether a rate hike is coming and responded that the decision will be made only once Fed officials "shut the door" and "have a good debate" at their next policy meeting. When the panel moderator, CNBC's Sara Eisen, tried to draw him out, Warsh said she would "fail" to make him break his self-imposed ban on offering advance clues, per Reuters. The appearance marked Warsh's first major outing since taking the job in late May, and investors were listening closely for any hints he might drop, CNBC reports.

Warsh shared the stage with ECB chief Christine Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, and Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem, all juggling stubborn inflation and geopolitical fallout but moving at different speeds on rate hikes. The four agree on one thing: opposing forward guidance. On that, "we have found common cause," Warsh said, per CNN, noting predictions may be moot in uncertain times. Based on his comments—including a statement that prices remain "too high"—markets see a 66% chance that rates hold at the July meeting, with a 66% chance of a hike in September, per CNBC. Warsh was also asked about the Supreme Court decision blocking President Trump from firing Fed Governor Lisa Cook, saying it will be followed.