China Takes Low-Risk Approach to Iran Peace Deal

Beijing may have scored some diplomatic points with President Trump by stepping into the Iran crisis just enough to matter—without taking real risks. China's quiet push helped coax Tehran into talks that led to a two-week cease-fire, a role other mediators like Pakistan and Turkey did more to secure but that Trump has publicly credited to Xi Jinping, the Wall Street Journal reports. Analysts say that's no accident: Xi is stacking up diplomatic IOUs ahead of next month's Trump-Xi summit, where he's expected to seek relief on tariffs and tech controls, and a softer US line on Taiwan, in exchange for help on flash points from the Strait of Hormuz to North Korea.

• Foreign Minister Wang Yi has worked the phones and touted a joint plan with Pakistan that offered Iran a diplomatic off-ramp, while not guaranteeing the truce or backing force to keep Hormuz open
• Analysts say Beijing is pursuing a "China First" policy, in which it looks for symbolic victories without taking big chances. "The prevailing mindset in Beijing is that China is not sticking its neck out for anybody," Asia Society Policy Institute analyst Danny Russel tells the Journal. "China will only engage in mediation that allows it to claim credit without incurring any real risk or cost," says Russel, a former senior diplomat who played a key role in the Obama administration's "pivot to Asia."

• On Wednesday, Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli, Iran's ambassador to China, said he hoped "big countries like China and Russia" would help to secure peace in the region, the Guardian reports. Song Bo, a fellow at the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University, says Beijing is unlikely to commit resources to the conflict. "China doesn't have a direct stake with any of the parties in the Middle East," Song says. "Acting as a guarantor for a ceasefire would be an extremely high-cost diplomatic undertaking, and I don't think China would commit to that easily."
• Chinese state media praised the diplomatic victory this week while warning that the fate of the deal depends on the US and Israel, the Washington Post reports. "Peace is hard-won, and consensus is precious. The commencement of these talks represents a victory of rationality over recklessness," a People's Daily editorial said Wednesday. "The United States and Israel must honor their commitments and refrain from further military escalation against Iran."