Scientists Are Nervous About Looming El Nino

Scientists are watching the Pacific with growing unease as a developing El Nino shows signs that it could rival the most intense on record. New European climate-model data suggests that sea temperatures in a key central Pacific zone could spike about 3 degrees Celsius above normal late this year—potentially matching or topping the 1877 and 2015 "super" El Nino events, per the Washington Post. That surge follows a rare three-cyclone setup last month that generated a pulse of unusually warm subsurface water, up to 7 degrees Celsius above average, supercharging the system. If the pattern fully locks in by July, as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expects, the effects could ripple worldwide through at least early 2027.

"Scientists are telling us that this could be the strongest El Nino event [so far this] century," the UK's weather and climate service noted in April, per the Guardian. Forecasts point to fewer Atlantic hurricanes but more in the Pacific; drier monsoons and higher heat risk in parts of India; heightened drought odds from Australia to northern South America; and greater flood risk in places including Peru, Ecuador, southern Brazil, the southern US, and parts of Africa and the Middle East. Heat waves are projected to become more frequent across multiple continents, with climate researchers putting the odds at roughly 3 in 4 that 2027 will be the hottest year ever recorded. Time and Vox have more on the possibility of a super El Nino, and what that could mean.