Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's administration frequently touts how it has sharply slowed deforestation in the Amazon, and indeed it has. When the next annual numbers are released in October, the deforestation rate is expected to be the lowest since 2012. But many other threats, ranging from climate change to potential legislation on the horizon, are putting the forest at risk, reports the AP. Forest degradation, driven by wildfires, logging, and drought, affects about 40% of the Amazon and has outpaced clear-cutting in recent years. All of this could be exacerbated in 2026 by a strong El Niño, which causes higher temperatures and drier weather in the rainforest, conditions that worsen wildfires. "Degradation is slower and more silent. It is like a chronic condition," said Taciana Stec, a climate policy specialist at Talanoa, a Brazilian climate think tank.
While the Amazon is still a carbon sink, it could reach a tipping point beyond which it cannot recover. At that stage, the forest could emit more CO2 than it absorbs. Scientists say repeated stress could trigger a regional or biome-wide collapse. A 2024 study published in Nature estimated that by 2050, between 10% and 47% of the Amazon could be pushed into conditions capable of triggering such a critical shift. Degradation continues to outpace deforestation. From August 2025 through April 2026, deforestation alerts covered nearly 656 square miles, while degradation affected about 1,706 square miles. During the 2023 and 2024 El Niño, temperatures rose 3.5 to 7 degrees Fahrenheit above the forest's historical average. Associated with severe drought, the heat fueled the Amazon's worst wildfires in two decades, and forest degradation increased at a rate roughly three times greater than the decline in deforestation.
The combined effect was a net loss of rainforest that undermined the deforestation progress, a study by Guilherme Mataveli, a researcher at Brazil's National Institute for Space Research, or INPE, showed. A degraded rainforest may still be standing, but it can no longer fully support the ecosystem. That weakness could be compounded by external factors like El Niño. For example, if the Amazon were a human patient with a chronic illness, El Niño would strike like a flu, triggering a fever that leaves the body weaker and more vulnerable. Two years later, the flu returns. But this time, the patient has not fully recovered. The fever burns hotter, and the illness hits harder.
To study long-term effects, for 20 years Leandro Maracahipes, a Yale University researcher, set controlled fires at a research farm in the Amazon that was also exposed to drought. The study found that after frequent wildfires, the forest did not completely disappear or transform into savanna, or widespread grassland, contrary to what scientific models had predicted. It remained a rainforest but degraded, with more clearings and vulnerability, lacking Amazon niche species that depend on dense cover and specific conditions—and time—to germinate and grow. "The forest is resilient, but our message is that we need to preserve it even more, and urgently," Maracahipes said. "And it has to be now."
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