France Is Hotter Than Temperatures Imagined for 2050

Back in 2014, a French TV meteorologist taped a pretend forecast for a blistering heat wave in August 2050. This week, France blew past it. A scorching high of 112.3 degrees Fahrenheit (44.3 Celsius) on Wednesday topped the imagined 2050 temperatures in 19 of 34 locations across mainland France, in some spots by more than 20 degrees, the Washington Post reports. The original segment, part of a World Meteorological Organization campaign, asked presenters to envision future weather on a hotter planet. Those mock maps showed much of France above 104 degrees—levels that are now reality 26 years ahead of schedule.

• "What the weather presenters created are only possible scenarios, and not true forecasts," WMO spokesperson Clare Nullis tells the Post. "Nevertheless, they are based on climate science, to try to explain to the public what life could be like on a warmer planet."

The heat, driven by a "heat dome" of high pressure pulling hot air up from Africa, made parts of France hotter than Las Vegas and Phoenix—where air-con is much more widely used—and just shy of Death Valley. Météo-France, the country's official meteorological service, says Wednesday and Thursday were the hottest days in France's history, with temperatures expected to climb even higher on Friday. The service says half of all French heat waves recorded since 1947 have occurred since 2010 and warns that by 2100, such events could drag on for up to two straight months.

Paris has seen more days at 104 degrees or higher this week than it did in the 147 years from 1872 to 2019, per the Weather Channel. Dozens of people across France, most of them young, have drowned in rivers and other bodies of water in recent days. In Paris, takeaway sales of alcohol have been banned to discourage people from drinking outside and the city's Pride parade has been rescheduled for September, the Guardian reports.

• In a thread on X, climate scientist Robert Rohde explained the causes of the heat wave and said Western Europe can expect many more such events in the coming decades. "This isn't a fluke, but simply part of the new normal," he wrote. "And if global warming is allowed to continue, similar events will become even more frequent."