9 Races Poised to Decide Control of the Senate

Control of the Senate in 2026 may come down to just nine races. CNN's latest ranking of seats most likely to change hands highlights a tough map for Democrats: they must defend three vulnerable seats, including Jon Ossoff's in Georgia and one in Michigan, while wresting four of six targeted Republican-held seats, among them an open Texas seat after John Cornyn's primary loss. National headwinds favor Democrats for now—President Trump's approval sits at 34% in a CNN/SSRS poll, and most Americans say his policies have hurt the economy—helping give the party an edge in enthusiasm. But with 35 Senate contests on the ballot and three months to go, CNN stresses that its list is a snapshot, not a forecast. A look:

• Alaska: Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola is seeking to unseat two-term GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan in a close contest. Peltola has $18.5 million to Sullivan's $11.7 million, but she's burning through it. This race also features a second Dan Sullivan.
• Georgia: CNN considers this race between incumbent Democrat Ossoff and GOP Rep. Mike Collins the least likely of the nine races to flip, with Ossoff picking up steam as the race goes on.
• Iowa: GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson has nearly three times the cash on hand as Rep. Josh Turek, who tapped former President Obama—the last national Democrat to win the state—in a campaign ad. Both parties are pouring money into the race.
• Maine: The Senate's most vulnerable Republican, Susan Collins, faces Democrat Troy Jackson, a late replacement for Graham Platner who's slightly ahead in early polling but far behind in money.

• Michigan: Progressives scored a win with Abdul El-Sayed, who now faces Republican Mike Rogers in what both parties see as the GOP's best pickup chance.
• Ohio: Former Sen. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat ousted by Bernie Moreno in 2024, is taking on GOP Sen. Jon Husted; Brown has nearly twice the cash on hand, but there is no clear leader in the race.
• New Hampshire: Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas and GOP former Sen. John Sununu are vying for Democrat Jeanne Shaheen's seat, with Pappas raising $13.4 million to Sununu's $3.6 million. The race is nonetheless seen as a good opportunity for the GOP to pick up a seat.
• North Carolina: Democratic ex-governor Roy Cooper leads Republican Michael Whatley by 9 points in a Fox News poll and has nearly six times his cash, making this Democrats' top flip opportunity.
• Texas: Democratic Rep. James Talarico is taking on scandal-plagued Attorney General Ken Paxton, who overthrew Cornyn with President Trump's blessing behind him. Talarico has pulled in a hefty $68.6 million and is currently leading 51% to 48%.