Hegseth Sets Policy on Military Operations Bets

Pentagon employees have received a new kind of security warning. In a memo dated Oct. 20, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth barred personnel from using any nonpublic information—classified or not—to wager on US military operations, singling out prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi, CBS News reports. Hegseth said such bets can create "signals" that foreign intelligence agencies might mine to forecast US troop movements, targets, or timing, potentially putting forces at risk. "Our enemies watch movements in these markets," he wrote.

Violators could face administrative penalties or criminal charges under federal law or the Uniform Code of Military Justice. Army Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke is accused of using inside knowledge of the operation to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro to place more than $33,000 in Polymarket bets, allegedly netting over $409,000. He's pleaded not guilty. "Beyond operational security, financial stakes can warp judgment," Hegseth said in the memo, per the AP. "A logistician with money riding on a strike date has an interest in that date. An analyst with a position on an outcome has an interest in that outcome."