Sticker shock is hitting the ObamaCare market hard, per new numbers obtained by the Wall Street Journal. An analysis by Wakely Consulting Group finds that about 14% of people who picked Affordable Care Act plans for 2026 never paid their first month's premium—a sharp jump from the usual mid-single-digit drop-off. In some states, at least 1 in 4 enrollees walked away. The timing lines up with the end of beefed-up federal subsidies that began during the pandemic, just as insurers pushed through sizable rate hikes tied to rising medical costs.
That combination is thinning the ACA risk pool in ways that worry actuaries and insurers. Healthier, often younger people are proving likelier to drop coverage, leaving behind a sicker—and more expensive—membership that can drive premiums higher still. "Your stomach drops," a 26-year-old Brooklyn bookstore manager says she experienced when she saw in December that her monthly premium had spiked $700, from $147 to $849, per CNBC.
Wakely projects overall ACA enrollment could fall 17% to 26% this year, with some insurers already reporting steep nonpayment losses. The Journal also follows consumers now priced out of comprehensive coverage and into short-term plans or no insurance at all. A recent KFF survey cited by PBS notes that about 55% of ACA enrollees planned to cut back on food or other household expenses to pay for their health care costs instead.
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