Nebraska's Primary Could Decide Fate of Its 'Blue Dot'

The fate of Nebraska's "blue dot"—a small, but significant factor in presidential politics—will take center stage Tuesday as Democratic voters select a congressional nominee in the state's high-profile 2nd District. The Omaha-area district, where Republican US Rep. Don Bacon is retiring, is one of the Democratic Party's biggest targets this midterm season. It's also a national focus every four years in presidential contests because Nebraska is one of just two states that splits its electoral votes, reports the AP. The 2nd District has gone to Democratic presidential candidates three out of five times since 2008—a "blue dot" in an otherwise sea of red.

Three Democrats are seen as the top contenders in Tuesday's primary: state Sen. John Cavanaugh, political activist Denise Powell, and district court clerk Crystal Rhoades. Republican Brinker Harding, an Omaha City Council member endorsed by President Trump, is running unopposed on the GOP side. Cavanaugh, more than anyone else on the ballot, has been under attack from both parties. Some Democratic opponents argue that a primary victory for Cavanaugh would jeopardize the district's "blue dot" status because he'd be leaving his valuable state legislative seat, making it easier for Republicans in the Nebraska Legislature to change the law that allows the state to split its electoral votes.

Republican groups have sent out mailers and social media posts claiming Cavanaugh "is in agreement with President Donald Trump" and showing a photo of Cavanaugh overlaid on a photo of the president, making it appear as if the two are standing together. "Clearly, the Republicans know that I'm the strongest general election candidate," Cavanaugh said. Paul Landow, a former Nebraska Democratic Party executive director, calls the "blue dot" attacks disingenuous, noting Republicans already have a filibuster-proof majority in the Legislature but have still failed to pass key elements of their agenda because they are unpopular even among GOP lawmakers. The argument that a Cavanaugh win could weaken the state's "blue dot" also assumes Democrats won't pick up additional legislative seats this year, he said.

The winner of Tuesday's primary will head to a highly competitive general election. Trump won the district in 2016, and the retiring Bacon, who has clashed with Trump, has held the House seat for five terms. Also on Tuesday's ballot:

• US Senate race: Republican incumbent Pete Ricketts is seeking a full term, following his 2023 appointment and 2024 special election victory to replace Republican Ben Sasse. Ricketts faces four primary challengers, but he's already looking ahead to an expected general election against independent Dan Osborn, a military veteran who came within 7 points of defeating Republican US Sen. Deb Fischer in her 2024 reelection bid. Running in the Democratic primary are William Forbes and Cindy Burbank.
• Governor's race: Incumbent Republican Gov. Jim Pillen faces five primary challengers, while former state Sen. Lynne Walz and frequent candidate Larry Marvin compete for the Democratic nomination.