Texas Senate Race Now a Tossup

Texas hasn't sent a Democrat to statewide office in a generation, but a new poll shows there could be a change this year. A New York Times/Siena survey finds the US Senate race between Democratic Rep. James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton deadlocked at 47% support each—Democrats' strongest showing in nearly 10 years of Times polling in the state. What's driving it: a favorable national climate for Democrats, an unusually unpopular GOP nominee, and a sharp swing among Hispanic voters, who back Talarico 61% in the poll after an even vote in 2024.

Paxton, who has been indicted, impeached, and is going through a very public divorce, is viewed negatively by 50% of voters; most say he lacks good character. Talarico, by contrast, posts positive ratings on every measure tested and even leads among white college graduates—no small feat for a Democrat in Texas. Other recent polls also show the pair neck and neck with four months left in the race, per the Texas Tribune and CBS News. Still, Republicans hold a six-point edge on the generic congressional ballot in the Times poll, and Talarico's image may be vulnerable: GOP strategists are signaling plans to highlight his past remarks, including calling himself "a Christian who hates Christianity."