Federal Judge Blocks Nation's First Prediction Market Ban

A federal judge has temporarily blocked Minnesota's first-in-the-nation law banning prediction markets just days before it was to take effect, the latest clash between President Trump's administration and states over who regulates operators such as Kalshi and Polymarket. Monday's decision is the latest setback for states trying to outlaw or regulate fast-growing prediction market platforms, the AP reports.

• US District Judge Katherine Menendez in Minnesota found that the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Kalshi, and Polymarket were likely to succeed in their challenge to the law and that letting it take effect would cause "irreparable harm" to the operators. The CFTC sued to block the law as soon as it was passed in May.

The law was scheduled to take effect Saturday. It would have made it a crime to create or operate prediction markets or help administer nearly any activity connected to one. The law will remain blocked while the lawsuit proceeds. Kalshi, Polymarket, and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission want the law permanently blocked and argue that federal law gives the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction to regulate the type of "event-contract transactions" offered by Kalshi and Polymarket.

• States argue that the vast majority of the business on prediction market platforms is sports betting, which they are empowered to regulate, and that is completely different from the commodities and futures contracts that the commission has historically regulated. In a statement Tuesday, Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison said prediction markets are "gambling, plain and simple." "And Minnesota has every right to keep predatory gambling out of our communities," Ellison said.
• "And Minnesota has every right to keep predatory gambling out of our communities," Ellison said. Ellison said his office disagrees with the court's decision that the "proper 'status quo' to maintain is one that allows predatory gambling apps to proliferate." But Ellison said the legal issues are complex and that he plans to continue defending the state's law.
• Neal Kumar, Polymarket's chief legal officer, said in a statement that the decision makes clear that prediction markets on commission-registered exchanges "are governed by federal law, not a patchwork of state rules." A Kalshi spokesperson, Elisabeth Diana, said in a statement that "states cannot ban things that they don't have jurisdiction over."