A Harvard budget expert is warning that the Iran conflict may carry a far bigger price tag than Washington is admitting. While the Pentagon put the first six days of the joint US-Israeli campaign at $11.3 billion, Harvard Kennedy School professor Linda Bilmes says the real tally is closer to $16 billion—and that total war costs could ultimately hit $1 trillion, reports CNBC. Her analysis, released just before the ceasefire was announced, estimates about $2 billion in daily upfront spending over 40 days of fighting, with additional pressure from the loss of military assets (like fighter jets) and the high cost of replacing modern weapons. Of course, the United States isn't the only one going to the bank: Haaretz reports that Israel's finance ministry says it has dropped $11.5 billion in its activities in Iran and Lebanon, and the defense ministry is seeking billions more.
Bilmes argues Pentagon accounting masks the true burden by valuing munitions and equipment at historical cost rather than current replacement prices. Longer term, she cites reconstruction of US and allied infrastructure, long-run disability benefits for roughly 55,000 exposed troops, and new procurement contracts—like $4 million US interceptors to stop drones Iran can build for around $30,000. The White House is seeking to raise the defense budget to $1.5 trillion, plus $200 billion earmarked for the war. With public debt now above $31 trillion, Bilmes says, "interest costs alone will add billions of dollars to the total cost of this war. And unlike the upfront costs, these are costs we are explicitly passing on to the next generation."
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